Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | USU -200 ORE +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORE +11 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -4.9 (-15.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (+10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -5.3 (-16.3) | 143.3 (+11.7) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -7.6 (-18.6) | 144.8 (+10.2) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USU -7.9 (-18.9) | 145.0 (+10.0) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -7.3 (-18.3) | 144.5 (+10.5) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-9 |
| Home | 9-7 | 12-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#51) | 7.9 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#82) | 1.41 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#65) | 1.76 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#76) | 0.557 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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