Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | FLA -280 IONA +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +5 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -7.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (+10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -7.2 (-2.2) | 144.8 (+8.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -6.2 (-1.2) | 146.4 (+6.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -6.8 (-1.8) | 146.6 (+6.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -5.8 (-0.8) | 145.7 (+7.3) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 17-3 |
| Home | 13-5 | 13-0 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#45) | 6.1 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#63) | 1.51 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#68) | 1.78 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#88) | 0.606 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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