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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
19–3 on winners
spread MAE 10.6
22 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+30.7 | 148.5 | 90% | 56–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.1 | 148.7 | 81% | 68–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.9 | 148.2 | 89% | 53–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.6 | 128.6 | 87% | 60–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.7 | 155.7 | 71% | 91–84 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.6 | 164.4 | 88% | 67–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.9 | 141.3 | 84% | 60–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.7 | 150.9 | 29% | 67–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.3 | 144.7 | 88% | 65–105 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.2 | 152.7 | 86% | 86–104 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.4 | 140.4 | 84% | 56–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.1 | 141.4 | 82% | 62–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.9 | 150.8 | 76% | 55–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.2 | 130.9 | 84% | 70–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+23.0 | 141.4 | 91% | 65–101 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.3 | 129.0 | 85% | 70–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.8 | 136.3 | 89% | 54–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.7 | 141.3 | 88% | 54–95 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.5 | 146.0 | 84% | 76–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.5 | 143.5 | 81% | 55–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.4 | 148.9 | 71% | 57–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.2 | 136.5 | 57% | 78–84 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.