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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
15–5 on winners
spread MAE 11.0
20 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+10.5 | 147.8 | 82% | 68–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.1 | 147.4 | 71% | 65–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.1 | 150.5 | 87% | 58–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.4 | 148.8 | 74% | 80–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.6 | 143.2 | 51% | 79–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.2 | 149.7 | 86% | 72–93 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.8 | 146.6 | 71% | 74–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.0 | 136.5 | 34% | 89–87 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.2 | 141.7 | 50% | 75–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.8 | 153.6 | 60% | 57–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.8 | 133.5 | 40% | 64–53 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.5 | 138.8 | 87% | 49–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.2 | 134.3 | 86% | 56–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.3 | 150.8 | 74% | 67–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+18.7 | 152.5 | 88% | 72–93 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.1 | 153.2 | 58% | 63–95 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.8 | 134.2 | 70% | 70–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.6 | 135.0 | 85% | 85–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.6 | 128.9 | 59% | 53–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.2 | 123.9 | 51% | 72–69 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.