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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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12–5 on winners spread MAE 7.9 17 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Vermont @ Arkansas +2.3 141.6 63% 71–75 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Fresno State +12.6 136.5 86% 74–83 ✓
Akron @ UCLA +12.2 135.2 86% 53–57 ✓
San Francisco @ Murray State -1.6 142.1 46% 87–92 ✗
Texas Southern @ Kansas +15.8 143.2 89% 56–83 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Ohio State -2.4 137.5 42% 41–54 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Auburn +14.0 142.4 87% 61–80 ✓
Montana State @ Texas Tech +12.2 137.9 85% 62–97 ✓
Yale @ Purdue +12.6 142.5 87% 56–78 ✓
Delaware @ Villanova +13.1 133.9 87% 60–80 ✓
Miami @ USC +2.0 141.3 60% 68–66 ✗
Notre Dame @ Alabama +1.6 155.5 56% 78–64 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Texas +1.8 131.7 53% 73–81 ✓
Chattanooga @ Illinois +4.5 137.5 66% 53–54 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Duke +13.4 144.6 87% 61–78 ✓
Wright State @ Arizona +16.0 156.4 88% 70–87 ✓
Iowa State @ LSU +4.4 130.7 67% 59–54 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.