← All models
Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–4 on winners
spread MAE 10.1
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Davidson
@
Michigan State
|
+1.0 | 140.8 | 59% | 73–74 | ✓ |
UAB
@
Houston
|
+7.6 | 142.3 | 81% | 68–82 | ✓ |
TCU
@
Seton Hall
|
+0.6 | 130.3 | 55% | 69–42 | ✗ |
Colgate
@
Wisconsin
|
+6.8 | 140.8 | 74% | 60–67 | ✓ |
Oregon
@
Texas A&M
|
+7.3 | 145.3 | 75% | 60–75 | ✓ |
Drake
@
Purdue Fort Wayne
|
-8.6 | 139.4 | 21% | 87–65 | ✓ |
North Carolina
@
Baylor
|
+5.7 | 148.5 | 64% | 93–86 | ✗ |
Stephen F. Austin
@
UNC Asheville
|
-7.0 | 146.4 | 25% | 68–80 | ✗ |
Creighton
@
Kansas
|
+7.4 | 137.0 | 77% | 72–79 | ✓ |
Western Illinois
@
UTEP
|
+7.9 | 145.3 | 79% | 54–80 | ✓ |
VCU
@
Wake Forest
|
+6.3 | 144.7 | 72% | 74–80 | ✓ |
Middle Tennessee
@
California Baptist
|
-6.2 | 138.0 | 25% | 64–58 | ✓ |
Michigan
@
Tennessee
|
+6.3 | 137.6 | 72% | 76–68 | ✗ |
Richmond
@
Providence
|
+3.4 | 136.7 | 66% | 51–79 | ✓ |
Saint Mary's
@
UCLA
|
+2.0 | 127.6 | 60% | 56–72 | ✓ |
Ohio
@
Rice
|
-4.5 | 143.3 | 28% | 65–64 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.