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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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23–13 on winners spread MAE 10.6 36 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
North Dakota @ Western Illinois +1.3 136.5 47% 78–69 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Marshall +10.4 139.2 79% 60–69 ✓
Murray State @ Middle Tennessee -4.5 154.9 40% 87–90 ✗
Akron @ Evansville -9.9 151.6 17% 97–59 ✓
Winthrop @ Jackson State -9.7 158.4 17% 80–62 ✓
Utah State @ Davidson -0.1 134.8 50% 94–60 ✓
Toledo @ Troy +5.9 159.0 72% 75–68 ✗
Rhode Island @ Towson -4.2 123.4 31% 55–62 ✗
Stony Brook @ Pacific -0.0 140.9 46% 58–86 ✗
Bucknell @ Bowling Green +14.4 144.3 87% 66–71 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Fairleigh Dickinson +3.4 150.2 57% 70–65 ✗
Massachusetts @ Oregon State -0.5 146.4 43% 73–65 ✓
Rutgers @ Tennessee +15.6 138.2 88% 60–85 ✓
Saint Francis @ Belmont +25.3 147.6 90% 57–94 ✓
UAB @ Southern Illinois -1.8 157.3 44% 81–73 ✓
Liberty @ Vermont -2.7 156.7 61% 79–73 ✓
Jacksonville @ Bethune-Cookman +1.9 143.0 60% 69–64 ✗
Creighton @ Baylor +1.5 150.1 47% 74–81 ✓
Seton Hall @ NC State +7.6 139.2 72% 85–74 ✗
VMI @ Buffalo +16.8 145.9 88% 70–78 ✓
Green Bay @ Iona +3.2 149.6 70% 80–75 ✗
Grambling @ UC Riverside +4.9 143.0 71% 74–83 ✓
Notre Dame @ Kansas +7.1 142.0 72% 61–71 ✓
William & Mary @ UTEP -8.3 138.2 23% 74–63 ✓
Oakland @ Lamar +7.5 144.2 79% 83–68 ✗
Iowa State @ St. John's +0.0 156.6 61% 83–82 ✗
Rice @ Kennesaw State +7.5 151.7 77% 84–89 ✓
Temple @ UC San Diego +2.3 144.2 66% 76–91 ✓
USC @ Boise State -1.0 152.9 44% 70–67 ✓
George Washington @ Middle Tennessee -7.6 149.9 25% 92–79 ✓
Charleston @ Evansville -1.6 139.1 48% 78–59 ✓
Syracuse @ Houston +1.4 125.6 41% 74–78 ✓
George Mason @ Ohio -7.6 139.8 23% 92–69 ✓
Siena @ Holy Cross -4.4 132.1 29% 73–69 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Youngstown State -1.1 154.7 45% 61–67 ✗
Elon @ App State +3.4 147.2 65% 88–53 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.