I've never done bad things. "Ashes to Ashes" - David Bowie
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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19–5 on winners spread MAE 11.8 24 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
North Texas @ McNeese +1.1 129.4 59% 61–68 ✓
Howard @ Florida International +5.2 145.3 72% 75–70 ✗
Colgate @ NC State +17.3 142.2 87% 49–72 ✓
American University @ High Point +16.2 133.5 88% 73–80 ✓
NJIT @ George Washington +27.1 134.7 91% 64–84 ✓
VMI @ Pittsburgh +22.8 146.2 89% 48–93 ✓
UNC Asheville @ North Florida +22.3 156.2 88% 89–75 ✗
Monmouth @ Wichita State +20.4 157.4 89% 66–70 ✓
SE Louisiana @ UL Monroe +1.1 140.4 44% 70–67 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Iowa State +21.5 146.6 86% 52–87 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Wisconsin +14.7 157.2 87% 84–87 ✓
Pacific @ Arkansas +15.1 132.8 84% 72–91 ✓
North Dakota State @ Southern Illinois +4.3 150.2 71% 44–69 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Texas Tech +39.4 152.0 91% 64–98 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ SMU +17.0 155.4 89% 69–110 ✓
North Alabama @ Auburn +20.7 149.7 86% 69–102 ✓
Montana @ Utah State +28.1 142.9 91% 83–95 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Washington State +6.4 158.9 77% 69–83 ✓
Gonzaga @ San Diego State -10.1 140.9 14% 80–67 ✓
Idaho State @ Cal State Fullerton -4.8 131.3 33% 61–62 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Navy +2.2 150.1 61% 74–63 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Boston College +6.4 136.8 66% 61–82 ✓
Longwood @ Binghamton -3.2 141.6 37% 66–60 ✓
Queens University @ App State +0.2 140.6 49% 53–65 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.