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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
15–5 on winners
spread MAE 11.3
20 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SE Louisiana
@
South Alabama
|
+11.4 | 148.3 | 85% | 68–70 | ✓ |
Morgan State
@
Youngstown State
|
+6.4 | 148.8 | 72% | 65–70 | ✓ |
Nicholls
@
SMU
|
+15.0 | 147.6 | 91% | 58–68 | ✓ |
Northern Iowa
@
Saint Louis
|
+6.5 | 148.0 | 72% | 80–68 | ✗ |
Kent State
@
Southern Utah
|
+1.4 | 141.0 | 55% | 79–83 | ✓ |
Long Beach State
@
BYU
|
+12.5 | 149.5 | 87% | 72–93 | ✓ |
Iona
@
Florida
|
+6.9 | 142.0 | 73% | 74–79 | ✓ |
Notre Dame
@
Rutgers
|
-2.2 | 132.8 | 42% | 89–87 | ✓ |
Michigan
@
Colorado State
|
-0.6 | 141.8 | 48% | 75–63 | ✓ |
South Dakota State
@
Providence
|
+1.8 | 155.3 | 57% | 57–66 | ✓ |
Memphis
@
Boise State
|
-0.6 | 136.4 | 48% | 64–53 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
Baylor
|
+19.1 | 139.5 | 96% | 49–85 | ✓ |
Longwood
@
Tennessee
|
+15.9 | 136.1 | 93% | 56–88 | ✓ |
Richmond
@
Iowa
|
+10.1 | 155.6 | 82% | 67–63 | ✗ |
Georgia State
@
Gonzaga
|
+24.3 | 151.7 | 99% | 72–93 | ✓ |
Marquette
@
North Carolina
|
+1.6 | 155.7 | 56% | 63–95 | ✓ |
New Mexico State
@
UConn
|
+7.6 | 137.7 | 75% | 70–63 | ✗ |
Saint Peter's
@
Kentucky
|
+15.8 | 134.4 | 92% | 85–79 | ✗ |
Indiana
@
Saint Mary's
|
+2.0 | 124.6 | 57% | 53–82 | ✓ |
Creighton
@
San Diego State
|
+3.2 | 119.9 | 61% | 72–69 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.