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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
9–5 on winners
spread MAE 9.5
14 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Texas State
@
North Texas
|
+9.3 | 112.2 | 80% | 63–67 | ✓ |
Cleveland State
@
Xavier
|
+14.8 | 150.5 | 91% | 68–72 | ✓ |
Alcorn State
@
Texas A&M
|
+18.8 | 137.1 | 96% | 62–74 | ✓ |
Oregon
@
Utah State
|
+5.1 | 144.1 | 68% | 83–72 | ✗ |
Indiana
@
Wyoming
|
-1.9 | 135.9 | 43% | 66–58 | ✓ |
Santa Clara
@
Washington State
|
+5.2 | 148.7 | 68% | 50–63 | ✓ |
St. Bonaventure
@
Colorado
|
+4.1 | 135.2 | 64% | 76–68 | ✗ |
Bryant
@
Wright State
|
+1.3 | 158.9 | 55% | 82–93 | ✓ |
Detroit Mercy
@
Florida Gulf Coast
|
+4.7 | 152.3 | 67% | 79–95 | ✓ |
Maryland Eastern Shore
@
Coastal Carolina
|
+12.0 | 130.9 | 86% | 42–66 | ✓ |
Towson
@
Wake Forest
|
+6.1 | 139.3 | 71% | 64–74 | ✓ |
Dayton
@
Toledo
|
+0.5 | 137.2 | 52% | 74–55 | ✗ |
Mississippi State
@
Virginia
|
-0.5 | 119.8 | 48% | 57–60 | ✗ |
Merrimack
@
UMBC
|
+6.8 | 132.6 | 73% | 1–0 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.