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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–5 on winners
spread MAE 7.5
17 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vermont
@
Arkansas
|
+3.7 | 143.2 | 63% | 71–75 | ✓ |
Eastern Washington
@
Fresno State
|
+13.5 | 132.9 | 89% | 74–83 | ✓ |
Akron
@
UCLA
|
+14.5 | 131.9 | 91% | 53–57 | ✓ |
San Francisco
@
Murray State
|
-0.9 | 138.6 | 47% | 87–92 | ✗ |
Texas Southern
@
Kansas
|
+19.6 | 145.5 | 96% | 56–83 | ✓ |
Loyola Chicago
@
Ohio State
|
-2.0 | 138.3 | 43% | 41–54 | ✗ |
Jacksonville State
@
Auburn
|
+15.8 | 143.0 | 92% | 61–80 | ✓ |
Montana State
@
Texas Tech
|
+15.5 | 133.4 | 92% | 62–97 | ✓ |
Yale
@
Purdue
|
+15.6 | 147.2 | 92% | 56–78 | ✓ |
Delaware
@
Villanova
|
+14.4 | 130.9 | 91% | 60–80 | ✓ |
Miami
@
USC
|
+2.2 | 145.2 | 58% | 68–66 | ✗ |
Notre Dame
@
Alabama
|
+3.3 | 156.1 | 62% | 78–64 | ✗ |
Virginia Tech
@
Texas
|
+2.0 | 122.5 | 57% | 73–81 | ✓ |
Chattanooga
@
Illinois
|
+6.7 | 138.4 | 73% | 53–54 | ✓ |
Cal State Fullerton
@
Duke
|
+15.7 | 144.0 | 92% | 61–78 | ✓ |
Wright State
@
Arizona
|
+22.3 | 160.0 | 98% | 70–87 | ✓ |
Iowa State
@
LSU
|
+5.0 | 125.8 | 68% | 59–54 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.