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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–4 on winners
spread MAE 10.7
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Davidson
@
Michigan State
|
+0.6 | 142.5 | 52% | 73–74 | ✓ |
UAB
@
Houston
|
+10.2 | 141.9 | 82% | 68–82 | ✓ |
TCU
@
Seton Hall
|
+0.1 | 131.5 | 50% | 69–42 | ✗ |
Colgate
@
Wisconsin
|
+8.0 | 140.0 | 77% | 60–67 | ✓ |
Oregon
@
Texas A&M
|
+4.4 | 141.6 | 66% | 60–75 | ✓ |
Drake
@
Purdue Fort Wayne
|
-11.2 | 141.6 | 15% | 87–65 | ✓ |
North Carolina
@
Baylor
|
+8.2 | 150.7 | 77% | 93–86 | ✗ |
Stephen F. Austin
@
UNC Asheville
|
-6.7 | 141.5 | 27% | 68–80 | ✗ |
Creighton
@
Kansas
|
+10.1 | 144.3 | 82% | 72–79 | ✓ |
Western Illinois
@
UTEP
|
+7.5 | 145.0 | 75% | 54–80 | ✓ |
VCU
@
Wake Forest
|
+5.2 | 137.5 | 68% | 74–80 | ✓ |
Middle Tennessee
@
California Baptist
|
-7.6 | 139.4 | 24% | 64–58 | ✓ |
Michigan
@
Tennessee
|
+7.1 | 136.8 | 74% | 76–68 | ✗ |
Richmond
@
Providence
|
+2.4 | 139.1 | 59% | 51–79 | ✓ |
Saint Mary's
@
UCLA
|
+2.8 | 128.6 | 60% | 56–72 | ✓ |
Ohio
@
Rice
|
-5.9 | 147.3 | 29% | 65–64 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.