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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
11–7 on winners
spread MAE 8.4
18 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Saint Peter's
@
Murray State
|
+8.1 | 128.5 | 77% | 70–60 | ✗ |
New Mexico State
@
Arkansas
|
+6.6 | 143.1 | 73% | 48–53 | ✓ |
Northern Iowa
@
BYU
|
+6.1 | 147.5 | 71% | 71–90 | ✓ |
Memphis
@
Gonzaga
|
+11.8 | 157.7 | 86% | 78–82 | ✓ |
LSU New Orleans
@
Portland
|
+7.6 | 150.0 | 76% | 73–94 | ✓ |
VMI
@
UNC Wilmington
|
-1.1 | 150.8 | 46% | 78–93 | ✗ |
Houston
@
Illinois
|
-5.6 | 136.4 | 31% | 68–53 | ✓ |
Florida
@
Xavier
|
+2.7 | 141.8 | 60% | 56–72 | ✓ |
Florida Atlantic
@
Northern Colorado
|
-6.2 | 155.5 | 29% | 71–74 | ✗ |
Ohio State
@
Villanova
|
+4.9 | 135.8 | 67% | 61–71 | ✓ |
Washington State
@
SMU
|
+2.3 | 136.7 | 58% | 75–63 | ✗ |
Dayton
@
Vanderbilt
|
+1.3 | 127.5 | 55% | 68–70 | ✓ |
UNC Greensboro
@
Boston University
|
-1.1 | 129.1 | 46% | 68–71 | ✗ |
Michigan State
@
Duke
|
+6.4 | 147.0 | 72% | 76–85 | ✓ |
Virginia
@
North Texas
|
+4.1 | 101.7 | 65% | 71–69 | ✗ |
Iowa State
@
Wisconsin
|
+0.8 | 126.5 | 53% | 54–49 | ✗ |
Notre Dame
@
Texas Tech
|
+8.1 | 134.2 | 77% | 53–59 | ✓ |
Abilene Christian
@
Troy
|
-4.1 | 139.2 | 35% | 82–70 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.