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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
18–3 on winners
spread MAE 8.6
21 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Illinois State
@
Drake
|
+16.9 | 143.6 | 90% | 60–95 | ✓ |
Murray State
@
Southeast Missouri State
|
-1.1 | 134.1 | 41% | 77–60 | ✓ |
East Tennessee State
@
Wofford
|
+1.6 | 139.0 | 54% | 62–67 | ✓ |
Valparaiso
@
Evansville
|
+1.9 | 128.6 | 59% | 51–58 | ✓ |
Duke
@
Miami
|
-4.4 | 138.1 | 33% | 75–77 | ✗ |
UCF
@
Memphis
|
+5.5 | 133.3 | 74% | 69–96 | ✓ |
Loyola Chicago
@
Missouri State
|
-6.1 | 133.5 | 26% | 70–50 | ✓ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Jackson State
|
+11.0 | 136.4 | 86% | 55–63 | ✓ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Grambling
|
+19.8 | 147.0 | 89% | 72–85 | ✓ |
Alabama State
@
Prairie View A&M
|
+13.8 | 132.1 | 87% | 63–87 | ✓ |
Alabama A&M
@
Texas Southern
|
+3.1 | 144.5 | 69% | 49–66 | ✓ |
Oklahoma
@
Texas Tech
|
+4.2 | 136.6 | 69% | 52–57 | ✓ |
South Carolina State
@
North Carolina Central
|
+16.3 | 152.1 | 90% | 77–91 | ✓ |
UMBC
@
NJIT
|
-0.8 | 135.5 | 52% | 75–71 | ✓ |
Butler
@
Marquette
|
+4.1 | 129.3 | 68% | 67–70 | ✓ |
Wake Forest
@
Notre Dame
|
+3.4 | 137.3 | 69% | 58–79 | ✓ |
Ohio
@
Central Michigan
|
-6.9 | 151.3 | 23% | 83–69 | ✓ |
Eastern Illinois
@
SIU Edwardsville
|
+3.2 | 139.8 | 54% | 70–61 | ✗ |
Miami (OH)
@
Kent State
|
+9.2 | 147.0 | 80% | 68–77 | ✓ |
Buffalo
@
Ball State
|
-2.7 | 153.8 | 41% | 78–58 | ✓ |
Purdue
@
Maryland
|
-0.3 | 132.2 | 54% | 60–61 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.