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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–9 on winners
spread MAE 7.1
21 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Incarnate Word
@
Nicholls
|
+3.9 | 139.8 | 69% | 70–74 | ✓ |
Pepperdine
@
Saint Mary's
|
+17.0 | 133.4 | 90% | 59–74 | ✓ |
Charleston
@
UNC Wilmington
|
+3.4 | 146.1 | 66% | 67–68 | ✓ |
Idaho
@
Portland State
|
+3.0 | 140.8 | 64% | 80–70 | ✗ |
Youngstown State
@
Cleveland State
|
+1.7 | 137.2 | 59% | 56–54 | ✗ |
San Francisco
@
Gonzaga
|
+10.7 | 154.0 | 83% | 76–85 | ✓ |
Cincinnati
@
Oklahoma State
|
-4.6 | 136.7 | 35% | 87–68 | ✓ |
Alabama A&M
@
Grambling
|
+6.7 | 129.7 | 74% | 56–73 | ✓ |
Pittsburgh
@
Notre Dame
|
-3.7 | 143.8 | 38% | 54–55 | ✗ |
Colorado
@
TCU
|
+2.4 | 130.9 | 60% | 69–67 | ✗ |
Utah Tech
@
Southern Utah
|
+0.5 | 139.3 | 50% | 72–65 | ✗ |
California
@
Virginia Tech
|
-0.7 | 144.7 | 44% | 82–73 | ✓ |
Siena
@
Rider
|
-2.2 | 139.6 | 42% | 76–78 | ✗ |
Sam Houston
@
UTEP
|
+1.6 | 145.3 | 56% | 65–79 | ✓ |
Delaware
@
UNC Wilmington
|
+8.6 | 149.1 | 82% | 72–76 | ✓ |
Maine
@
Vermont
|
+2.1 | 126.4 | 58% | 57–42 | ✗ |
Northwestern State
@
McNeese
|
+14.2 | 135.4 | 88% | 64–83 | ✓ |
Saint Francis
@
Central Connecticut
|
+12.0 | 134.5 | 86% | 46–43 | ✗ |
Youngstown State
@
Robert Morris
|
+4.7 | 142.4 | 69% | 78–89 | ✓ |
Arizona State
@
Kansas State
|
+0.7 | 140.6 | 54% | 66–71 | ✓ |
Syracuse
@
Florida State
|
+3.3 | 148.4 | 63% | 66–62 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.