Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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6–7 on winners spread MAE 10.0 13 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Monmouth @ Charleston +7.8 144.1 80% 78–79 ✓
Incarnate Word @ SE Louisiana +2.3 136.4 60% 71–67 ✗
Pepperdine @ Santa Clara +15.5 153.5 88% 78–76 ✗
Troy @ James Madison -2.5 139.3 43% 79–60 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Omaha -0.8 151.5 46% 75–85 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Montana +4.4 143.6 70% 65–74 ✓
Washington State @ San Francisco +5.9 150.9 72% 75–86 ✓
Delaware @ Towson +4.4 145.4 72% 82–72 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Northwestern State -2.2 130.6 44% 63–66 ✗
Arkansas State @ Troy +0.0 139.9 47% 81–94 ✓
Wofford @ Furman +1.2 141.0 58% 92–85 ✗
Oakland @ Robert Morris +4.6 139.8 69% 76–79 ✓
Montana State @ Idaho State +0.2 138.1 54% 80–60 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.