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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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11–10 on winners spread MAE 7.0 21 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Florida Gulf Coast @ Queens University	-1.6	147.6	42%	55–61	✗
Bellarmine @ North Florida	+1.8	142.9	58%	76–74	✗
North Carolina @ Florida State	-8.0	153.1	20%	77–66	✓
Coppin State @ Delaware State	+1.1	152.1	56%	82–72	✗
Norfolk State @ North Carolina Central	+2.4	140.8	61%	75–76	✓
Howard @ South Carolina State	-3.6	157.4	30%	82–78	✓
Southern @ Florida A&M	-4.7	132.4	29%	60–58	✓
Grambling @ Bethune-Cookman	-8.0	136.5	19%	66–54	✓
Morgan State @ Maryland Eastern Shore	+5.9	141.1	74%	68–61	✗
Weber State @ Northern Arizona	+1.4	137.6	54%	90–89	✗
Idaho State @ Northern Colorado	+2.8	146.6	64%	72–87	✓
Baylor @ Oklahoma State	-0.2	146.0	47%	74–68	✓
West Virginia @ Iowa State	+3.3	133.1	67%	72–69	✗
Nevada @ Wyoming	-6.3	137.2	24%	71–80	✗
Montana @ Idaho	-3.5	138.0	32%	68–53	✓
Montana State @ Eastern Washington	+3.6	142.5	68%	79–74	✗
Prairie View A&M @ Jackson State	+0.8	140.2	53%	57–61	✓
Texas Southern @ Alcorn State	+5.9	142.5	75%	81–89	✓
Sacramento State @ Portland State	+2.1	146.1	60%	76–74	✗
Arkansas State @ Coastal Carolina	+0.3	136.1	52%	86–69	✗
Marquette @ Butler	-5.3	142.0	29%	72–56	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.