Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | ALCN -188 TXSO +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +8 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | ALCN -5.8 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (+26.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -5.9 (+2.1) | 142.2 (+27.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -4.2 (+3.8) | 140.6 (+29.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -5.9 (+2.1) | 142.5 (+27.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -5.9 (+2.1) | 142.9 (+27.1) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | TXSO 92 – 87 ALCN |
| Jan 17, 2026 | TXSO 72 – 71 ALCN |
| Mar 4, 2025 | TXSO 75 – 59 ALCN |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TXSO 66 – 57 ALCN |
| Mar 5, 2024 | ALCN 82 – 79 TXSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 14-21 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-2 | 7-6 |
| Away | 10-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#274) | -8.1 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#184) | -1.60 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#183) | -1.92 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#166) | 0.446 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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