Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCO -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | UNCO -225 IDST +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCO +15 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | UNCO -4.3 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (+10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCO -2.5 (+12.5) | 147.7 (+11.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCO -4.4 (+10.6) | 146.1 (+12.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCO -2.8 (+12.2) | 146.6 (+12.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCO -2.6 (+12.4) | 147.4 (+11.6) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | UNCO 69 – 61 IDST |
| Jan 9, 2026 | UNCO 85 – 72 IDST |
| Feb 4, 2025 | UNCO 86 – 72 IDST |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNCO 93 – 92 IDST |
| Mar 11, 2024 | IDST 83 – 76 UNCO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCO | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 8-10 |
| Home | 6-7 | 7-7 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#231) | -4.3 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#253) | -1.24 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#244) | -1.09 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#266) | 0.423 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCO | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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