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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
13–6 on winners
spread MAE 7.2
19 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Louisiana Tech
@
Ole Miss
|
+1.2 | 130.2 | 54% | 70–61 | ✗ |
Rutgers
@
Clemson
|
-0.9 | 127.7 | 49% | 60–56 | ✓ |
Syracuse
@
San Diego State
|
+2.8 | 138.5 | 63% | 78–62 | ✗ |
Winthrop
@
Villanova
|
+5.4 | 144.8 | 67% | 63–73 | ✓ |
Morehead State
@
West Virginia
|
+10.0 | 141.5 | 80% | 67–84 | ✓ |
Dayton
@
Memphis
|
+4.5 | 139.2 | 66% | 60–71 | ✓ |
Georgetown
@
Colorado
|
+4.4 | 135.4 | 67% | 73–96 | ✓ |
UNC Greensboro
@
Florida State
|
+7.0 | 140.9 | 74% | 54–64 | ✓ |
Eastern Washington
@
Kansas
|
+7.2 | 136.8 | 78% | 84–93 | ✓ |
St. Bonaventure
@
LSU
|
-0.3 | 142.9 | 48% | 61–76 | ✗ |
Texas Southern
@
Michigan
|
+15.9 | 142.0 | 87% | 66–82 | ✓ |
UC Santa Barbara
@
Creighton
|
+4.8 | 138.9 | 66% | 62–63 | ✓ |
Iona
@
Alabama
|
+12.4 | 143.6 | 86% | 55–68 | ✓ |
Drake
@
USC
|
+5.3 | 138.5 | 69% | 56–72 | ✓ |
Mississippi State
@
Saint Louis
|
+2.6 | 136.4 | 61% | 74–68 | ✗ |
Grand Canyon
@
Iowa
|
+11.2 | 143.2 | 84% | 74–86 | ✓ |
Maryland
@
UConn
|
+2.6 | 133.3 | 62% | 63–54 | ✗ |
Ohio
@
Virginia
|
+5.8 | 130.3 | 72% | 62–58 | ✗ |
Missouri
@
Oklahoma
|
+1.1 | 144.0 | 53% | 68–72 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.