Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | MISS -150 LT +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +9 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | MISS -2.8 (-11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.5 (+6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -1.2 (-10.2) | 130.2 (+0.8) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -2.6 (-11.6) | 128.3 (+2.7) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -2.0 (-11.0) | 131.4 (-0.4) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -1.8 (-10.8) | 130.2 (+0.8) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | LT |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Massey | 10.4 (#49) | 7.6 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#66) | 1.42 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#65) | 1.70 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#97) | 0.574 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | LT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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