Betting Lines
| Spread | SLU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | SLU -163 MSST +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SLU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +6 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | SLU -3.8 (-9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SLU -2.6 (-8.6) | 136.4 (+5.6) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SLU -3.0 (-9.0) | 132.6 (+9.4) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SLU -3.1 (-9.1) | 135.5 (+6.5) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SLU -2.7 (-8.7) | 137.2 (+4.8) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SLU | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-7 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 6-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-1 | 9-6 |
| Away | 1-4 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.4 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#39) | 7.3 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#70) | 1.11 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#69) | 1.57 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#96) | 0.519 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SLU | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 78.0% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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