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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
11–5 on winners
spread MAE 9.9
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
App State
@
Norfolk State
|
+1.0 | 130.5 | 55% | 53–54 | ✓ |
SMU
@
Boise State
|
+0.2 | 141.1 | 50% | 84–85 | ✓ |
UCLA
@
Michigan State
|
-1.6 | 136.8 | 44% | 86–80 | ✓ |
Virginia Tech
@
Florida
|
+1.1 | 138.1 | 55% | 70–75 | ✓ |
Colgate
@
Arkansas
|
-0.1 | 159.1 | 48% | 68–85 | ✗ |
Drexel
@
Illinois
|
+15.3 | 146.7 | 87% | 49–78 | ✓ |
Utah State
@
Texas Tech
|
+2.6 | 131.1 | 60% | 53–65 | ✓ |
Oral Roberts
@
Ohio State
|
+12.8 | 158.2 | 86% | 75–72 | ✗ |
Hartford
@
Baylor
|
+15.3 | 143.1 | 86% | 55–79 | ✓ |
Georgia Tech
@
Loyola Chicago
|
+2.3 | 126.7 | 61% | 60–71 | ✓ |
Oregon State
@
Tennessee
|
+7.2 | 134.2 | 76% | 70–56 | ✗ |
Liberty
@
Oklahoma State
|
+6.7 | 144.7 | 72% | 60–69 | ✓ |
Buffalo
@
Colorado State
|
+1.9 | 147.3 | 60% | 73–75 | ✓ |
Wisconsin
@
North Carolina
|
+0.5 | 138.8 | 54% | 85–62 | ✗ |
Cleveland State
@
Houston
|
+16.6 | 137.3 | 88% | 56–87 | ✓ |
North Texas
@
Purdue
|
+5.4 | 127.8 | 71% | 78–69 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.