Betting Lines
| Spread | BOIS -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | BOIS +110 SMU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BOIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BOIS +1 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | BOIS -0.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (+25.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BOIS -0.2 (+0.8) | 141.1 (+27.9) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BOIS -0.5 (+0.5) | 137.6 (+31.4) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BOIS -0.8 (+0.2) | 141.7 (+27.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -0.2 (+1.2) | 139.8 (+29.2) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BOIS | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-9 | 11-6 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-4 |
| Home | 11-1 | 6-2 |
| Away | 6-6 | 5-2 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#53) | 9.5 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#54) | 1.68 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#60) | 2.09 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#18) | 0.543 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BOIS | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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