Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -2.0 Push |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | CSU -110 BUF +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +2 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -0.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -1.9 (+0.1) | 147.3 (+0.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -0.5 (+1.5) | 147.7 (+0.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -1.9 (+0.1) | 148.6 (-0.6) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -2.3 (-0.3) | 148.6 (-0.6) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-8 | 16-9 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 12-5 |
| Home | 10-1 | 8-3 |
| Away | 6-4 | 5-3 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#59) | 8.1 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.92 (#47) | 0.56 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#61) | 0.89 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#42) | 0.518 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 44.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 14.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 37.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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