Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | NORF +163 APP -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +1 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -0.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.8 (-20.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -1.0 (+0.0) | 130.5 (-23.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -0.6 (+0.4) | 131.7 (-24.7) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -1.1 (-0.1) | 131.7 (-24.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -1.0 (-0.0) | 129.8 (-22.8) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Game Analysis
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