Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | MEM -188 DAY +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +11 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -4.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -4.5 (+6.5) | 139.2 (-8.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -3.9 (+7.1) | 136.2 (-5.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -3.9 (+7.1) | 138.7 (-7.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -3.8 (+7.2) | 140.2 (-9.2) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-8 | 14-10 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 9-7 |
| Home | 10-1 | 8-3 |
| Away | 4-3 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#38) | 6.2 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#58) | 1.12 (#85) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.39 (#47) | 1.81 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#59) | 0.532 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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