The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
← All models

Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
19–2 on winners spread MAE 8.8 21 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Illinois State @ Drake +16.7 146.2 90% 60–95 ✓
Murray State @ Southeast Missouri State -1.2 137.2 43% 77–60 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Wofford +2.9 140.8 66% 62–67 ✓
Valparaiso @ Evansville +1.6 132.1 61% 51–58 ✓
Duke @ Miami -3.9 137.2 34% 75–77 ✗
UCF @ Memphis +6.4 133.9 74% 69–96 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Missouri State -5.2 135.4 30% 70–50 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Jackson State +12.0 137.3 87% 55–63 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Grambling +20.2 140.8 90% 72–85 ✓
Alabama State @ Prairie View A&M +16.0 129.4 89% 63–87 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Texas Southern +1.5 146.6 56% 49–66 ✓
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech +4.6 139.8 68% 52–57 ✓
South Carolina State @ North Carolina Central +19.3 151.5 90% 77–91 ✓
UMBC @ NJIT -0.6 135.1 47% 75–71 ✓
Butler @ Marquette +5.1 131.1 70% 67–70 ✓
Wake Forest @ Notre Dame +4.7 140.2 72% 58–79 ✓
Ohio @ Central Michigan -7.5 155.9 23% 83–69 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ SIU Edwardsville +3.5 141.3 64% 70–61 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Kent State +11.0 151.5 85% 68–77 ✓
Buffalo @ Ball State -1.2 151.4 45% 78–58 ✓
Purdue @ Maryland +1.5 136.4 56% 60–61 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.