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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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12–8 on winners spread MAE 10.7 27 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Eastern Illinois @ Dayton	—	—	—	63–66	—
Central Michigan @ Florida International	—	—	—	76–96	—
Valparaiso @ UIC	+6.1	139.9	74%	50–66	✓
North Carolina A&T @ Charleston Southern	+5.8	138.3	72%	70–63	✗
Cleveland State @ Toledo	—	—	—	61–70	—
Davidson @ Providence	-2.1	148.5	41%	62–63	✗
Oklahoma State @ Marquette	+7.7	144.1	71%	70–62	✗
Michigan State @ Duke	+5.6	146.5	72%	75–69	✗
Hampton @ George Washington	—	—	—	82–78	—
Winthrop @ UNC Greensboro	—	—	—	75–67	—
South Dakota @ Nebraska	+17.6	140.2	89%	69–76	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Grand Canyon	+25.0	152.8	91%	49–88	✓
Kansas @ Kentucky	-1.0	145.1	46%	65–62	✓
UNLV @ Alabama	+9.0	144.2	80%	74–86	✓
Nicholls @ Saint Mary's	+2.2	136.0	58%	50–73	✓
Indiana @ Stanford	+0.5	137.0	53%	79–63	✗
Army @ Florida	—	—	—	69–76	—
Texas @ North Carolina	-2.4	132.0	38%	69–67	✓
Morehead State @ Ohio State	+16.7	140.4	88%	44–77	✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ South Florida	-0.3	133.7	45%	57–76	✗
St. John's @ BYU	-1.2	150.2	39%	68–74	✗
Lipscomb @ Cincinnati	—	—	—	55–67	—
VCU @ Penn State	+7.1	144.5	76%	69–72	✓
Montana State @ Pacific	+4.3	147.1	64%	70–74	✓
Eastern Kentucky @ South Carolina Upstate	-3.6	150.5	38%	95–78	✓
South Carolina State @ Clemson	+21.7	137.7	90%	38–75	✓
UNC Greensboro @ Duquesne	-5.0	143.1	26%	68–81	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.