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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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12–8 on winners spread MAE 10.0 27 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Eastern Illinois @ Dayton — — — 63–66 —
Central Michigan @ Florida International — — — 76–96 —
Valparaiso @ UIC +7.8 139.2 78% 50–66 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Charleston Southern +6.4 138.7 66% 70–63 ✗
Cleveland State @ Toledo — — — 61–70 —
Davidson @ Providence -2.3 150.1 45% 62–63 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Marquette +8.5 143.6 74% 70–62 ✗
Michigan State @ Duke +6.2 147.0 67% 75–69 ✗
Hampton @ George Washington — — — 82–78 —
Winthrop @ UNC Greensboro — — — 75–67 —
South Dakota @ Nebraska +20.0 141.5 90% 69–76 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Grand Canyon +35.2 146.7 91% 49–88 ✓
Kansas @ Kentucky -1.5 147.8 43% 65–62 ✓
UNLV @ Alabama +9.1 145.9 79% 74–86 ✓
Nicholls @ Saint Mary's +1.6 135.3 59% 50–73 ✓
Indiana @ Stanford +1.6 137.8 46% 79–63 ✗
Army @ Florida — — — 69–76 —
Texas @ North Carolina -2.5 130.9 36% 69–67 ✓
Morehead State @ Ohio State +17.4 140.5 88% 44–77 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ South Florida -0.0 133.3 61% 57–76 ✗
St. John's @ BYU -1.9 151.2 46% 68–74 ✗
Lipscomb @ Cincinnati — — — 55–67 —
VCU @ Penn State +6.5 144.2 78% 69–72 ✓
Montana State @ Pacific +5.2 146.0 75% 70–74 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ South Carolina Upstate -4.0 150.5 29% 95–78 ✓
South Carolina State @ Clemson +28.2 133.7 89% 38–75 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Duquesne -4.4 142.7 37% 68–81 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.