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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
21–15 on winners
spread MAE 10.7
36 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
North Dakota
@
Western Illinois
|
+4.5 | 138.3 | 66% | 78–69 | ✗ |
Mercyhurst
@
Marshall
|
+13.1 | 143.1 | 88% | 60–69 | ✓ |
Murray State
@
Middle Tennessee
|
-6.9 | 165.0 | 27% | 87–90 | ✗ |
Akron
@
Evansville
|
-17.6 | 162.3 | 5% | 97–59 | ✓ |
Winthrop
@
Jackson State
|
-24.8 | 169.2 | 1% | 80–62 | ✓ |
Utah State
@
Davidson
|
+0.1 | 141.0 | 50% | 94–60 | ✗ |
Toledo
@
Troy
|
+9.0 | 177.3 | 79% | 75–68 | ✗ |
Rhode Island
@
Towson
|
-6.7 | 133.6 | 27% | 55–62 | ✗ |
Stony Brook
@
Pacific
|
-2.5 | 148.1 | 41% | 58–86 | ✗ |
Bucknell
@
Bowling Green
|
+17.0 | 149.4 | 94% | 66–71 | ✓ |
East Texas A&M
@
Fairleigh Dickinson
|
+3.3 | 161.5 | 62% | 70–65 | ✗ |
Massachusetts
@
Oregon State
|
-2.4 | 155.8 | 41% | 73–65 | ✓ |
Rutgers
@
Tennessee
|
+18.2 | 141.9 | 95% | 60–85 | ✓ |
Saint Francis
@
Belmont
|
+22.9 | 152.8 | 98% | 57–94 | ✓ |
UAB
@
Southern Illinois
|
+0.8 | 165.9 | 53% | 81–73 | ✗ |
Liberty
@
Vermont
|
-1.0 | 177.3 | 46% | 79–73 | ✓ |
Jacksonville
@
Bethune-Cookman
|
+3.3 | 153.6 | 62% | 69–64 | ✗ |
Creighton
@
Baylor
|
-0.1 | 160.4 | 49% | 74–81 | ✗ |
Seton Hall
@
NC State
|
+9.7 | 147.5 | 81% | 85–74 | ✗ |
VMI
@
Buffalo
|
+17.6 | 154.7 | 94% | 70–78 | ✓ |
Green Bay
@
Iona
|
+4.9 | 164.8 | 67% | 80–75 | ✗ |
Grambling
@
UC Riverside
|
+7.4 | 150.0 | 75% | 74–83 | ✓ |
Notre Dame
@
Kansas
|
+8.3 | 144.3 | 77% | 61–71 | ✓ |
William & Mary
@
UTEP
|
-15.1 | 148.6 | 9% | 74–63 | ✓ |
Oakland
@
Lamar
|
+7.3 | 157.3 | 75% | 83–68 | ✗ |
Iowa State
@
St. John's
|
-1.4 | 164.8 | 45% | 83–82 | ✓ |
Rice
@
Kennesaw State
|
+7.4 | 163.2 | 75% | 84–89 | ✓ |
Temple
@
UC San Diego
|
+4.3 | 156.1 | 65% | 76–91 | ✓ |
USC
@
Boise State
|
-5.4 | 161.8 | 31% | 70–67 | ✓ |
George Washington
@
Middle Tennessee
|
-13.2 | 154.8 | 11% | 92–79 | ✓ |
Charleston
@
Evansville
|
-3.7 | 145.6 | 37% | 78–59 | ✓ |
Syracuse
@
Houston
|
+2.4 | 125.1 | 59% | 74–78 | ✓ |
George Mason
@
Ohio
|
-12.7 | 143.1 | 12% | 92–69 | ✓ |
Siena
@
Holy Cross
|
-3.5 | 133.6 | 37% | 73–69 | ✓ |
Georgia Southern
@
Youngstown State
|
-2.7 | 167.5 | 40% | 61–67 | ✗ |
Elon
@
App State
|
+2.9 | 158.6 | 61% | 88–53 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.