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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
20–3 on winners
spread MAE 7.8
23 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Maryland Eastern Shore
@
Virginia
|
+26.3 | 134.8 | 91% | 60–84 | ✓ |
North Carolina Central
@
Kentucky
|
+27.4 | 141.7 | 91% | 67–103 | ✓ |
North Carolina A&T
@
Howard
|
-1.6 | 140.2 | 42% | 69–73 | ✗ |
Coppin State
@
Saint Joseph's
|
+19.0 | 148.1 | 90% | 65–87 | ✓ |
South Dakota State
@
Ball State
|
-7.9 | 131.8 | 18% | 68–64 | ✓ |
Little Rock
@
West Virginia
|
+23.0 | 130.6 | 91% | 58–90 | ✓ |
Columbia
@
Stony Brook
|
-3.3 | 139.3 | 40% | 73–77 | ✗ |
McNeese
@
Rhode Island
|
-0.1 | 138.8 | 48% | 66–64 | ✓ |
Bucknell
@
Rider
|
-2.8 | 135.0 | 30% | 51–38 | ✓ |
Illinois
@
Ohio State
|
-0.9 | 150.4 | 48% | 88–80 | ✓ |
Brown
@
Providence
|
+13.5 | 149.4 | 86% | 79–86 | ✓ |
Morgan State
@
DePaul
|
+16.4 | 147.7 | 89% | 49–92 | ✓ |
Penn State
@
Indiana
|
+12.0 | 145.2 | 85% | 72–113 | ✓ |
South Dakota
@
Wyoming
|
+16.4 | 157.5 | 89% | 79–106 | ✓ |
USC
@
San Diego
|
-11.2 | 158.5 | 16% | 94–81 | ✓ |
Dartmouth
@
Colorado State
|
+21.6 | 147.2 | 90% | 55–76 | ✓ |
Northern Arizona
@
Arizona State
|
+15.3 | 148.8 | 88% | 48–73 | ✓ |
Florida
@
UConn
|
+5.8 | 138.3 | 69% | 73–77 | ✓ |
Long Beach State
@
San José State
|
+7.6 | 134.3 | 76% | 83–89 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
Baylor
|
+15.6 | 146.3 | 88% | 67–97 | ✓ |
UAlbany
@
Yale
|
+21.8 | 142.0 | 90% | 82–93 | ✓ |
Merrimack
@
Princeton
|
+2.9 | 135.2 | 68% | 59–56 | ✗ |
Miami (OH)
@
UNC Asheville
|
-2.5 | 146.7 | 36% | 90–87 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.