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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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15–8 on winners spread MAE 8.8 23 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Virginia @ Pittsburgh	+12.3	133.9	83%	73–57	✗
North Carolina Central @ Norfolk State	+9.5	146.6	86%	78–81	✓
Alabama State @ Florida A&M	+0.2	142.7	46%	67–66	✗
Alabama A&M @ Bethune-Cookman	+10.6	148.1	87%	75–89	✓
Incarnate Word @ McNeese	+18.4	138.1	90%	65–67	✓
Lamar @ SE Louisiana	+1.4	134.7	51%	79–81	✓
Jackson State @ Southern	+6.7	138.4	76%	89–91	✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Northwestern State	+0.9	143.0	60%	63–79	✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ East Texas A&M	-7.4	140.9	22%	78–66	✓
Stephen F. Austin @ New Orleans	-4.0	134.8	29%	88–85	✓
Houston Christian @ Nicholls	+6.3	139.8	80%	67–75	✓
South Carolina State @ Howard	-0.6	147.7	43%	89–66	✓
Morgan State @ Delaware State	+5.5	155.3	72%	82–84	✓
Coppin State @ Maryland Eastern Shore	+2.4	134.7	64%	62–57	✗
Charleston @ William & Mary	-2.4	159.7	35%	75–90	✗
Iowa State @ Kansas	+4.7	147.9	73%	52–69	✓
Alcorn State @ Grambling	+0.4	129.9	45%	60–53	✗
Northern Arizona @ Weber State	-0.2	139.8	50%	73–77	✗
Northern Colorado @ Idaho State	-0.7	145.7	47%	86–72	✓
North Texas @ UAB	-1.6	134.7	39%	61–64	✗
Marquette @ St. John's	+4.8	141.4	76%	64–70	✓
Texas Southern @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-10.0	152.1	19%	68–69	✗
Kent State @ Eastern Michigan	-7.2	136.0	25%	70–49	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.