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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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14–5 on winners spread MAE 5.8 19 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
North Alabama @ Bradley	+7.0	143.2	75%	62–71	✓
Furman @ North Texas	+8.0	131.8	76%	64–75	✓
Northern Iowa @ SMU	+10.6	140.3	82%	63–73	✓
Xavier @ Texas	-0.1	151.5	51%	86–80	✓
Northern Colorado @ UC Irvine	+10.0	149.6	82%	72–82	✓
Utah Valley @ San Francisco	+8.6	142.2	78%	70–79	✓
Loyola Chicago @ San José State	+0.4	140.7	50%	73–70	✗
Creighton @ Louisville	+2.6	143.3	68%	89–75	✗
High Point @ Purdue	+12.2	150.5	84%	63–75	✓
Montana @ Wisconsin	+16.5	148.7	89%	66–85	✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Houston	+23.1	127.7	90%	40–78	✓
Alabama State @ Auburn	+21.3	147.5	90%	63–83	✓
McNeese @ Clemson	+7.7	134.2	75%	69–67	✗
VCU @ BYU	+3.0	143.0	65%	71–80	✓
Georgia @ Gonzaga	+8.1	150.0	74%	68–89	✓
Wofford @ Tennessee	+19.2	135.0	90%	62–77	✓
Arkansas @ Kansas	+2.5	146.6	58%	79–72	✗
Yale @ Texas A&M	+9.2	143.3	83%	71–80	✓
Drake @ Missouri	+7.5	136.6	79%	67–57	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.