Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | UCI -380 UNCO +290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCI +10 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | UCI -9.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -10.2 (-0.2) | 150.0 (+4.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -11.0 (-1.0) | 152.2 (+1.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -9.5 (+0.5) | 149.6 (+4.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -10.0 (+0.0) | 149.6 (+4.4) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCI | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 14-3 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#66) | 2.7 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#46) | 0.59 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#58) | 0.68 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#25) | 0.530 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCI | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 50.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 57.3% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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