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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
13–3 on winners
spread MAE 9.2
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Utah State
@
UCLA
|
+4.1 | 141.8 | 63% | 47–72 | ✓ |
Omaha
@
St. John's
|
+19.8 | 145.8 | 90% | 53–83 | ✓ |
UC San Diego
@
Michigan
|
+2.8 | 138.9 | 63% | 65–68 | ✓ |
UNC Wilmington
@
Texas Tech
|
+16.8 | 148.5 | 89% | 72–82 | ✓ |
Baylor
@
Mississippi State
|
+0.5 | 148.0 | 53% | 75–72 | ✗ |
Robert Morris
@
Alabama
|
+19.8 | 164.2 | 90% | 81–90 | ✓ |
Lipscomb
@
Iowa State
|
+15.9 | 143.8 | 86% | 55–82 | ✓ |
Colorado State
@
Memphis
|
+0.5 | 144.8 | 55% | 78–70 | ✗ |
Mount St. Mary's
@
Duke
|
+22.6 | 139.3 | 90% | 49–93 | ✓ |
Vanderbilt
@
Saint Mary's
|
+4.1 | 132.7 | 69% | 56–59 | ✓ |
North Carolina
@
Ole Miss
|
+0.8 | 151.7 | 56% | 64–71 | ✓ |
Grand Canyon
@
Maryland
|
+16.4 | 147.2 | 87% | 49–81 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
Florida
|
+21.5 | 152.4 | 90% | 69–95 | ✓ |
Troy
@
Kentucky
|
+14.4 | 149.7 | 85% | 57–76 | ✓ |
New Mexico
@
Marquette
|
+2.0 | 147.6 | 55% | 75–66 | ✗ |
Akron
@
Arizona
|
+16.7 | 166.4 | 87% | 65–93 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.