Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | SF -250 UVU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +9 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | SF -8.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -8.6 (+0.4) | 142.5 (+6.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -8.4 (+0.6) | 143.0 (+6.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -9.2 (-0.2) | 144.5 (+4.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -8.6 (+0.4) | 142.2 (+6.8) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 15-1 |
| Home | 17-2 | 12-0 |
| Away | 5-5 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 68.9 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#63) | 3.7 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.84 (#54) | 0.93 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#61) | 0.84 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#46) | 0.556 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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