Everybody know I'm a motherfucking monster. "Monster" - Kanye West
The Super Pit · March 20, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread UNT -8.5 Home covered
O/U 131.5 Over
Money UNT -450 / FUR +340
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNT win
Actual UNT +11 139 Won
Massey UNT -8.8 (+2.2)
Massey Totals 127.2 (+11.8)
Bradley-Terry 75%
Weighted B-T 84%
Baseline ML UNT -9.0 (+2.0) 132.6 (+6.4) 76%
Baseline Plus ML UNT -9.1 (+1.9) 129.1 (+9.9) 78%
Efficiency Plus ML UNT -8.7 (+2.3) 132.5 (+6.5) 75%
Baseline Tuned ML UNT -8.0 (+3.0) 131.8 (+7.2) 76%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNT FUR
Overall 27-9 25-10
Conference 14-4 11-7
Home 17-1 13-3
Away 8-5 9-6
Neutral 2-3 3-1
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 67.5 74.2
Avg Pts Against 60.6 71.1
Massey 7.2 (#82) 1.7 (#134)
Bradley-Terry 1.41 (#71) 0.87 (#98)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.63 (#74) 0.66 (#123)
RPI 0.578 (#43) 0.553 (#74)
Shooting & Four Factors UNT FUR
FG% 44.9% 44.3%
3PT% 35.7% 36.0%
REB / G 32.4 35.1
OREB / G 10.0 10.2
AST / TO 1.02 1.42
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.6% 53.6%
TOV% 17.1% 17.0%
ORB% 33.1% 30.0%
FT Rate 28.4% 24.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.8% 49.2%
Opp TOV% 19.3% 16.5%
DRB% 72.3% 69.0%
Opp FT Rate 29.7% 21.4%

Game Analysis

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