Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | UNT -450 FUR +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +11 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -8.8 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.2 (+11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -9.0 (+2.0) | 132.6 (+6.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -9.1 (+1.9) | 129.1 (+9.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -8.7 (+2.3) | 132.5 (+6.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -8.0 (+3.0) | 131.8 (+7.2) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 11-7 |
| Home | 17-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-5 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.6 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#82) | 1.7 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#71) | 0.87 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#74) | 0.66 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#43) | 0.553 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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