Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | BRAD -195 UNA +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +9 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -6.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (-14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -6.8 (+2.2) | 144.3 (-11.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -7.0 (+2.0) | 142.7 (-9.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -8.3 (+0.7) | 142.8 (-9.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -7.0 (+2.0) | 143.2 (-10.2) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-4 | 16-1 |
| Away | 9-3 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#91) | 3.1 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#60) | 0.34 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#81) | 0.42 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#59) | 0.522 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 12.5% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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