← All models
Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
17–7 on winners
spread MAE 10.2
24 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+24.0 | 140.0 | 91% | 46–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+22.9 | 134.5 | 91% | 56–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.0 | 155.3 | 81% | 63–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.4 | 144.1 | 82% | 71–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.1 | 146.7 | 87% | 67–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.8 | 158.2 | 30% | 76–80 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.2 | 145.0 | 39% | 80–84 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.8 | 150.8 | 90% | 58–119 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.2 | 145.2 | 91% | 45–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.4 | 150.8 | 75% | 85–102 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.5 | 148.4 | 73% | 78–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+19.0 | 134.0 | 90% | 42–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.9 | 154.2 | 88% | 60–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.5 | 152.3 | 67% | 81–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.6 | 145.4 | 66% | 58–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.5 | 136.9 | 77% | 70–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.5 | 142.7 | 53% | 87–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.5 | 153.8 | 84% | 80–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.6 | 140.3 | 60% | 69–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.7 | 158.2 | 73% | 88–80 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.4 | 132.5 | 59% | 76–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.4 | 142.3 | 75% | 69–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.7 | 148.6 | 89% | 69–94 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.5 | 148.0 | 84% | 62–69 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.