Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -26.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -10000 TROY +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +20 | 104 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -22.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.2 (-31.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -21.2 (-1.2) | 133.8 (-29.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -20.2 (-0.2) | 136.3 (-32.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -19.0 (+1.0) | 134.0 (-30.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -19.3 (+0.7) | 130.1 (-26.1) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-5 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 13-5 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 10-0 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.6 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 21.4 (#6) | 3.2 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#62) | 0.44 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.95 (#50) | 0.52 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#74) | 0.531 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 43.3% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 23.8% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 37.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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