Betting Lines
| Spread | PORT -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | PORT -150 KC +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PORT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KC +5 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | PORT -2.6 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (-10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PORT -2.4 (-7.4) | 140.1 (-7.1) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PORT -3.5 (-8.5) | 139.7 (-6.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PORT -3.6 (-8.6) | 140.3 (-7.3) | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PORT -1.2 (-6.2) | 141.5 (-8.5) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PORT | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 4-12 |
| Home | 9-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 70.3 |
| Massey | -10.6 (#333) | -8.7 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#272) | -3.38 (#357) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.11 (#295) | -4.41 (#358) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#252) | 0.341 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PORT | KC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 35.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 41.9% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 19.5% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.3% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.2% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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