Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | ARK +145 MICH -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +2 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | MICH -0.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+32.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -2.2 (-0.2) | 142.6 (+33.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -1.2 (+0.8) | 147.0 (+29.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -0.5 (+1.5) | 142.7 (+33.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -1.1 (+3.1) | 145.3 (+30.7) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 14-6 |
| Home | 13-4 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 7-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 78.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#33) | 13.9 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#93) | 3.22 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#80) | 4.79 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#100) | 0.666 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.1% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 57.3% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 37.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 42.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.2% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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