Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | FAU -900 JAX +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +22 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | FAU -11.8 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.0 (-23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -9.1 (+12.9) | 153.2 (-5.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -10.7 (+11.3) | 156.1 (-8.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -10.0 (+12.0) | 155.3 (-7.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -11.8 (+10.2) | 152.7 (-4.7) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAU | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-7 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#87) | -1.7 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#140) | 0.53 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#100) | 1.48 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#75) | 0.565 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAU | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.