Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -34.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +26 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -33.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (-22.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -30.5 (-4.5) | 140.6 (-22.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -30.5 (-4.5) | 140.3 (-22.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -24.0 (+2.0) | 140.0 (-22.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -27.3 (-1.3) | 139.1 (-21.1) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-4 | 19-17 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 9-11 |
| Home | 17-0 | 11-5 |
| Away | 10-1 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 8-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 24.4 (#3) | -4.6 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.05 (#18) | -1.20 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.73 (#14) | -1.39 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.640 (#23) | 0.399 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 41.1% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.0% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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