Betting Lines
| Spread | SYR -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | SYR -1200 UALB +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SYR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SYR +17 | 187 | Won |
| Massey | SYR -9.2 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.1 (+26.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SYR -6.2 (+10.8) | 152.4 (+34.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SYR -6.9 (+10.1) | 150.3 (+36.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SYR -6.4 (+10.6) | 150.8 (+36.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SYR -10.2 (+6.8) | 150.9 (+36.1) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SYR | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 8-8 |
| Home | 11-6 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-9 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.8 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#143) | -3.5 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#178) | -0.14 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#163) | -0.25 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#157) | 0.499 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SYR | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 26.0% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 28.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 58.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 78.9% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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