In North Carolina way back in the hills, there lived my pappy and he had him a still. "White Lightning" - The Big Bopper
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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14–5 on winners spread MAE 6.9 19 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Virginia @ Virginia Tech +2.4 131.8 60% 41–75 ✓
Lamar @ SE Louisiana +0.4 144.9 53% 77–72 ✗
South Carolina State @ Howard +4.0 149.8 69% 75–68 ✗
Morgan State @ Delaware State +4.8 142.6 71% 58–80 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Incarnate Word +1.4 143.4 59% 76–72 ✗
Nicholls @ New Orleans -4.0 149.3 28% 89–77 ✓
William & Mary @ Charleston +12.6 147.5 88% 57–65 ✓
Coppin State @ Maryland Eastern Shore +4.4 127.3 66% 67–75 ✓
Northwestern State @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +10.6 137.7 86% 61–72 ✓
Southern @ Texas Southern -0.2 137.5 48% 56–68 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Alabama State +13.9 131.8 88% 46–61 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alabama A&M +2.8 152.4 63% 67–75 ✓
Florida A&M @ Alcorn State +7.7 139.0 80% 68–79 ✓
Grambling @ Prairie View A&M +1.3 133.1 56% 83–74 ✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Jackson State +4.8 142.9 71% 60–61 ✓
Iowa State @ Houston +6.2 132.4 75% 65–73 ✓
Kansas State @ Texas +6.8 140.7 76% 56–62 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Norfolk State +3.4 134.8 66% 74–80 ✓
Butler @ Villanova +6.6 142.4 75% 62–72 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.