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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
11–7 on winners
spread MAE 9.9
18 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alcorn State
@
North Texas
|
+16.6 | 128.1 | 89% | 53–69 | ✓ |
Virginia Tech
@
Cincinnati
|
+6.2 | 150.0 | 73% | 72–81 | ✓ |
Santa Clara
@
Sam Houston
|
+2.2 | 137.4 | 56% | 56–58 | ✓ |
Nevada
@
Arizona State
|
-1.1 | 135.5 | 45% | 73–98 | ✗ |
Utah Valley
@
New Mexico
|
+5.3 | 157.9 | 67% | 83–69 | ✗ |
UC Irvine
@
Oregon
|
+8.3 | 141.6 | 77% | 58–84 | ✓ |
West Virginia
@
Maryland
|
-1.1 | 139.7 | 46% | 65–67 | ✗ |
Furman
@
Virginia
|
+4.5 | 135.1 | 70% | 68–67 | ✗ |
Utah State
@
Missouri
|
-2.6 | 155.5 | 39% | 65–76 | ✗ |
Howard
@
Kansas
|
+14.6 | 143.3 | 87% | 68–96 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
Alabama
|
+16.6 | 155.1 | 87% | 75–96 | ✓ |
Charleston
@
San Diego State
|
+2.5 | 138.4 | 58% | 57–63 | ✓ |
Princeton
@
Arizona
|
+9.6 | 154.7 | 81% | 59–55 | ✗ |
Illinois
@
Arkansas
|
+1.1 | 144.6 | 53% | 63–73 | ✓ |
Auburn
@
Iowa
|
-0.7 | 152.3 | 50% | 83–75 | ✓ |
Oral Roberts
@
Duke
|
+2.5 | 144.3 | 59% | 51–74 | ✓ |
Boise State
@
Northwestern
|
-0.7 | 129.5 | 47% | 67–75 | ✗ |
Colgate
@
Texas
|
+11.3 | 146.9 | 84% | 61–81 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.