Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.0 Under |
| Money | UNT -1700 ALCN +950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +16 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -18.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -17.1 (-1.1) | 126.6 (-4.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -17.0 (-1.0) | 124.4 (-2.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -16.6 (-0.6) | 128.1 (-6.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -18.0 (-2.0) | 127.7 (-5.7) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-7 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-2 | 7-2 |
| Away | 10-3 | 10-10 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 56.3 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#57) | -5.9 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#33) | -0.18 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#48) | -0.25 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#27) | 0.513 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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