Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | ASU -133 NEV +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +25 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -1.2 (+26.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (+36.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -1.8 (+26.8) | 136.7 (+34.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -1.3 (+26.3) | 135.0 (+36.0) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -1.1 (+26.1) | 135.5 (+35.5) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -1.6 (+26.6) | 135.6 (+35.4) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-5 | 14-1 |
| Away | 7-6 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#71) | 9.6 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#60) | 1.88 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#66) | 2.21 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#66) | 0.586 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 31.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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